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The Big Picture

Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media
  1. A number of media outlets, including Barron’s, CNN, and Marketwatch, have suggested that the 20% move off of the lows qualifies as a new bull market. Does it really? To find out, I reached out via email to many of the savviest technicians and strategists on the street. Their insights were informative and thought provoking. Before we…

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  2. My Two-for-Tuesday morning train home reads: • This Is Not the Apocalypse You Were Looking For: Pop culture has been inundated with catastrophe porn for decades. None of it has prepared us for our new reality. (Wired) see also They Were Opposed To Government Surveillance. Then The Coronavirus Pandemic Began. (Buzzfeed) • After the pandemic: How…

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  3. Click to see updated map of state and city “Shelter-in-Place” directives  Source: NYT     261 million people in at least 31 states, 82 counties, 18 cities, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico are being urged to stay home.  

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  4. Are streaks real? Does the hot hand really exit, or is it just our pattern recognition software run amuck? How has our thinking about the statistics behind lucky runs evolved over time? Those were the questions on my mind when I spoke with Ben Cohen, the Wall Street Journal’s NBA reporter. His new book is The Hot…

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  5. Source: Index Fund Advisors       There was a fascinating study released last year about the nature of Alpha:  S&P Dow Jones Indices Fleeting Alpha: The Challenge of Consistent Outperformance by Berlinda Liu and Andrew Cairns. They used S&P’s “Persistence Scorecard” to analyze whether outperforming managers tend to keep outperforming: “The SPIVA series examines…

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  6. My shelter-in-place, back to work morning train reads: • “A plane from Shanghai arrived at JFK Airport in New York Sunday morning carrying an extraordinary load: 12 million gloves, 130,000 N95 masks, 1.7 million surgical masks, 50,000 gowns, 130,000 hand sanitizer units, and 36,000 thermometers.” (Axios) • How bad could the US jobs market become? (FT…

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  7. Tonight: Mel Brooks double feature! Young Frankenstein & Blazing Saddles (so good!) — Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) March 29, 2020     Of all the many things there are to complain about during this shelter-in-place pandemic, being bored should not be one of them. However, a paradox of choice potentially overwhelms viewer with a near…

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  8.     The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Ben Cohen on Streaks, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras, on Apple iTunes, Spotify, Overcast, Google, Bloomberg, and Stitcher. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.   ~~~   RITHOLTZ: Masters in Business…

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  9. My easy like Sunday morning policy reads: • Now Is the Time to Overreact: If the measures we’re taking to fight the coronavirus work, they’ll look excessive later on. But the alternative is worse. (The Atlantic) • Rupert Murdoch Put His Son in Charge of Fox. It Was a Dangerous Mistake. (New York Times) see…

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  10. This week, I sit down with Wall Street Journal’s NBA correspondent Ben Cohen. His new book is The Hot Hand: The Mystery and Science of Streaks was just released this month. In college, he was the sports editor at the Duke Chronicle, where he covered Duke basketball and other sports. He interned at the WSJ, eventually becoming a…

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